John Yarmuth shakes off Republican Todd Lally to retain Louisville's 3rd Congressional District

Defying a national Republican surge, Louisville’s Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth successfully fended off his tea party-backed challenger, Todd Lally, to capture a third term in the 3rd Congressional District.Despite pre-election polls predicting heightened Republican turnout, Yarmuth, 62, the former publisher of LEO Weekly, won with 55 percent of the vote to Lally’s 44 percent with 99.8 percent of the ballots counted. The Democratic-leaning district covers most of Jefferson County.

“I think it does show that even a Republican wave has limits, and that some of the apocalyptic predictions for Democrats were a little premature,” said Isaac Wood, an analyst for the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “It shows that candidates still matter. If a generic Democrat had been running, you might not have had the same result.”

It was a narrower margin of victory than in 2008, when, buoyed by President Barack Obama’s candidacy, Yarmuth dispatched former Rep. Anne Northup by nearly 18 points.

But in a speech before cheering supporters at the Marriott Louisville Downtown hotel, Yarmuth said he was grateful to the community “for showing your confidence in me. That means more than I can say.”

Although the House was projected to fall into Republican hands, Yarmuth refused to politically distance himself from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a popular GOP target, and vowed to “remain a tireless, passionate voice for making this county a country that works for everybody, not just the privileged few.”

Winning the war

Lally, a 39-year-old UPS pilot and lieutenant colonel in the National Guard, who watched results with supporters at the Galt House Hotel & Suites, said he felt that he “out-campaigned” Yarmuth despite the loss.

“I’m proud that we were able to hold his feet to the fire on the issues that we don’t think reflect the views of voters,” Lally said. “But obviously there’s a little bit of a sting to this.”

In a concession speech, Lally said, “We may have lost this battle, but we haven’t lost the war,” and predicted that “tonight, Nancy Pelosi will retire.”

Two other candidates in the race — independent Michael Hansen and Libertarian Ed Martin — each received less than 1 percent of the vote.

Dewey Clayton, a University of Louisville professor of political science, said that while Lally “ran a good campaign” that “stuck to the issues,” Yarmuth had the advantage of incumbency and a record of “bringing pork back to the district.” He also may have benefited from enthusiastic turnout overall, which in Louisville favors Democrats, Clayton said.

Substantial differences

The Yarmuth-Lally race offered sharp contrasts between the candidates during a campaign that included about six debates. Lally, who campaigned on reducing government spending, deficits and regulations, worked to portray Yarmuth as a tax-and-spend liberal closely allied with Pelosi, D-Calif.

In advertising and speeches, Lally repeatedly declared that Yarmuth “voted with Pelosi 99 percent of the time.” He hammered Yarmuth on jobs, saying continuing unemployment rates of nearly 10 percent showed that Democrats had failed.

Lally opposed the health care overhaul, the need to curtail greenhouse gases, stimulus spending and the right of gays to serve openly in the military — all of which Yarmuth supported. They also clashed on Afghanistan policy and on immigration issues.

Yarmuth ran on his record of expanding health care, access to education and veterans’ benefits — and defended the stimulus program’s new jobs, including 1,100 at Louisville’s Appliance Park.

Supporter Pat O’Bryan, who attended Yarmuth’s victory celebration, said that while he often supports Republicans, he backed Yarmuth partly because he “votes for what he believes in. I respect that.”

A nation divided

After his win Tuesday, Yarmuth said in his speech that the victory was “bittersweet.”

“It’s clear we have a country that is fiercely divided,” he said, decrying the “demagoguery” and “crazy rhetoric” involved in Republican criticism of Pelosi and Obama that accompanied political races nationwide.

“The next two years are going to be a battle over philosophy, rather than policy. I don’t think a lot is going to get done legislatively,” he said.

Throughout the campaign, analysts predicted a win for Yarmuth, who raised about $1.4 million through Oct. 13, compared with Lally’s $736,840. Lally wasn’t able to secure funding from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

During the campaign, Lally was criticized for making several statements allowing Democrats to paint him as “extreme.” He said that Obama’s past was too “sketchy” for him to get military security clearance and that the health care changes benefited “freeloaders.”

The defeat was Lally’s second in an election, following an unsuccessful 1998 bid for a state legislative seat. He said his political future was uncertain, but said he would return to his UPS pilot’s job, which next week would include a flight to Malaysia.

Reporter Chris Kenning can be reached at (502) 582-4697.

Reporter Peter Smith contributed to this story.